Lancaster, Pennsylvania 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

722
FXUS61 KCTP 231743
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
143 PM EDT Tue Jun 23 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Minor changes to the rainfall forecast for the rest of today.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Drying out for Wednesday, but rain chances return to end the
week.

2) Increasing heat risk to end June and start July.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Drying out for Wednesday, but rain chances return
to end the week.

Steady rain over southeast PA will gradually come to an end
through the afternoon and evening as a wave of low pressure
riding along a slow-moving cold front moves away from the
region. High pressure building in behind this system will
provide dry weather on Wednesday with mainly clear skies along
with temperatures in the 70s and low 80s.

The next chance for rain will come Thursday evening into Friday
as a couple of upper level disturbances move overhead. The best
forcing with these systems look to pass to our north, so the
highest chances for any showers or thunderstorms looks to be
across the northern half of Pennsylvania. Most guidance shows
another shortwave tracking farther to the south Friday night
into Saturday which will bring another round of showers and
thunderstorms to parts of central PA. Locations along and south
of I-80 appear favored to see the most rain from this system.

---------------------------------------------------------------

KEY MESSAGE 2: Increasing heat risk to end June and start July.

A major pattern change over the Pacific Northwest and
Intermountain West this weekend will likely result in a
downstream upper ridge developing over the eastern U.S. by early
next week. Blended ensemble guidance driving the prototype
probabilistic heatrisk is confirming the signal for a heatwave
to end June and start July. CPC has placed a 20-40% slight risk
of extreme heat over CPA from 6/30-7/6 with higher chances in
the 40-60% range in southeast PA. There is still quite a bit of
spread in ensembles regarding the placement of the upper level
ridge, but there is increasing potential for high temperatures
to exceed 90 degrees over a large portion of the area towards
the end of the forecast period. With humidity also expected to
be on the rise, we may see heat index values approach 100
degrees. Depending on the exact positioning of the ridge, there
may also be some potential for showers and thunderstorms to
develop each afternoon in northwest flow aloft.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The low cloud deck causing restrictions this morning is
pivoting off to the east with only MDT and LNS still firmly
experiencing MVFR restrictions and light showers as of the 18Z
update. They both should be seeing improving conditions likely
within the next 1-3 hours as the precipitation moves out of our
area. Conditions look to be mainly VFR with scattered cumulus as
the main clouds behind this cloud shield.

Calm winds and clear skies may lead to areas of fog and low
stratus forming across western PA between 07z-12z Wed, with
probability of IFR conditions still around 30 pct at BFD and
10-20 pct chc at the other airfields. Have put TEMPO groups
into JST and BFD for visibility restrictions to highlight most
confident timing of fog development.

Outlook...

Wed...Mainly VFR, dry conditions expected.

Thu...Restrictions possible in another round of showers and
storms late.

Fri-Sat...Restrictions possible in additional showers and
storms.

Sun..Mainly VFR, dry conditions prevail.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Bauco
KEY MESSAGES...Bauco
DISCUSSION...Bauco
AVIATION...